I. Executive Summary: The Fifth Republic at a Crossroads
France has been embroiled in an extended period of political upheaval, labeled a "political crisis" by both domestic and international observers, tracing its origins back to President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024. This decision, prompted by the far-right’s success in the European parliamentary elections, resulted in a historically fragmented, hung parliament that has rendered the country ungovernable by traditional means. Since the dissolution, France has cycled rapidly through four prime ministers, demonstrating a continuous governmental paralysis that fundamentally challenges the constitutional resilience of the Fifth Republic.
The latest and perhaps most telling casualty of this deadlock was Sébastien Lecornu, appointed Prime Minister in September 2025. Lecornu's tenure proved to be a historical anomaly, lasting only 27 days in total, with his fully formed cabinet surviving a mere 14 hours after its announcement. This record-short span solidified his place as the shortest-serving Prime Minister in modern French history. His resignation was not triggered by a formal motion of censure but was a pre-emptive action forced by the immediate threat of collapse, catalyzed by his cabinet choices which prompted the swift withdrawal of support from critical conservative allies and ensured the unified opposition of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) and the far-right National Rally (RN).
The prevailing political deadlock has exacted a severe toll across multiple sectors. Economically, the inability to pass critical fiscal legislation has accelerated the country’s debt crisis, leading to sovereign credit rating downgrades from agencies like Fitch and Moody’s. Societally, the political instability has occurred against a backdrop of intensifying mass protests and nationwide trade union strikes against austerity measures and proposed spending cuts. Institutionally, the crisis has led to a profound erosion of presidential authority, culminating in key former allies joining opposition voices in demanding that President Macron resign or call fresh presidential elections to resolve the stalemate. With two-thirds of French citizens believing the country is in a state of political "crisis or decay," the institutional failure presents a long-term risk to France’s financial stability and global standing.
II. Institutional Origins of the Deadlock (The 2024 Disruption)
A. The Calculus of Dissolution and the Hung Parliament
The 2024–2025 political crisis originated with President Macron’s calculation to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024. This action was a direct response to the sweeping successes achieved by the far-right in the European parliamentary elections. The resulting snap legislative election failed catastrophically to deliver the clear majority Macron had sought, instead producing a historically divided parliament.
The National Assembly became fragmented into three roughly equal, yet ideologically antagonistic, blocs: the left-wing NFP coalition secured a plurality with 193 Members of Parliament (MPs); Macron’s own centre-right alliance (Renaissance/Ensemble) came in second with 166 MPs; and the far-right National Rally (RN) held 142 seats. Critically, Macron’s centrists, even when allied with conservative groups, could only command around 210 seats, placing them significantly below the 289-seat threshold required for an absolute majority. This configuration mandated that any government formed by Macron would inevitably be a fragile governing minority, forcing it to seek complex, and ultimately impossible, compromises across the political spectrum.
B. Constitutional Constraints in a New Political Reality
The instability observed in 2024–2025 is not merely a political spat but an institutional breakdown, placing the Fifth Republic in an unprecedented constitutional scenario. Unlike previous periods of 'cohabitation'—where the president faced a clear, unified majority in the legislature capable of forming a stable government—the 2024 outcome presented no clear alternative majority bloc, leaving the executive branch in perpetual minority. The semi-presidential system, designed in 1958 to prioritize executive stability and prevent the paralysis of the Fourth Republic, relies fundamentally on the existence of a single, functional majority. The three-way fragmentation neutralizes the constitutional tools intended to enforce stability.
The most potent mechanism intended to overcome parliamentary deadlock, Article 49.3 of the Constitution, was effectively neutralized. This special clause permits the Prime Minister to force the adoption of a bill—most notably the annual budget—without a parliamentary vote. However, its use immediately exposes the government to a binding motion of no confidence. Historically, minority governments frequently utilized Article 49.3 to pass complex legislation. However, the 2024 election fundamentally altered the calculation for using this tool. The NFP and the RN, despite their deep ideological differences, demonstrated a persistent willingness to collaborate specifically to topple Macron’s governments whenever 49.3 was invoked. This created a severe constitutional dilemma: attempting to govern effectively using the only available executive mechanism guaranteed the government's collapse. The successful censure of the Michel Barnier government in December 2024 demonstrated that the opposition prioritized executive defeat over political abstraction, making the instrument of presidential stability an institutional liability and a guaranteed path to parliamentary defeat for subsequent PMs, including Lecornu.
III. The Revolving Door: Preceding Government Collapses (2024–2025)
The extreme fragility that characterized Sébastien Lecornu's tenure was built upon a succession of rapid failures, highlighting the impossibility of addressing the country’s main duty: securing a national budget under severe fiscal duress.
A. The Collapse of Michel Barnier (September – December 2024)
Michel Barnier, appointed after the snap election, represented a brief pivot toward the center-right. His government took office under the unusual circumstance of having a legislative majority in the Senate but not in the decisive National Assembly. The government's core challenge was tackling the 2025 budget, requiring unpopular tax rises and spending cuts to address a deficit that stood at 6.1% of GDP in 2024.
acing overwhelming resistance to his budget proposals in mid-October 2024, Barnier resorted to the use of Article 49.3 to push through a social security financing bill on December 2. This immediately prompted two separate motions of no confidence from the NFP and RN blocs, which, upon uniting, achieved a rare parliamentary victory. On December 4, 2024, the National Assembly passed the joint motion of no confidence by a vote of 331–244. This vote was historically significant, marking the first time a French government had been successfully toppled by Parliament since 1962, thereby confirming the viability of the NFP-RN constitutional coalition and setting the stage for subsequent instability.
B. The Defeat of François Bayrou (January – September 2025)
Bayrou inherited the crisis in January 2025. His appointment further highlighted France’s deteriorating financial outlook, coinciding with Moody's Ratings cutting the French credit rating. Moody’s explicitly cited the view that "political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation". The economic pressure meant Bayrou was tasked with presenting a stringent austerity budget for 2026.
Unlike Barnier, Bayrou chose to avoid the 49.3 trap. He refused to negotiate the austerity budget and instead sought a formal vote of confidence under Article 49.1 of the Constitution. The vote, held on September 8, 2025, resulted in a crushing defeat, with 364 votes against the government and only 194 in favor. Both the NFP and the RN voted against the motion, affirming that any attempt by a Macron minority government to manage the fiscal crisis through either forceful executive action (49.3) or voluntary confidence seeking (49.1) would result in certain defeat. Following this defeat, Bayrou resigned, paving the way for Lecornu.
The rapid failure of these successive administrations can be quantified:
Summary of Consecutive Minority Governments (2024–2025)
| Prime Minister | Appointment Date | Collapse Date | Tenure (Approx.) | Core Policy Issue | Constitutional Trigger |
| Gabriel Attal | Jan 2024 | July 2024 | 6 months | N/A (Pre-Dissolution) | Presidential Dissolution |
| Michel Barnier | Sept 2024 | Dec 2024 | 3 months | 2025 Social Security Budget | Successful Censure (Art. 49.3) |
| François Bayrou | Dec 2024 | Sept 2025 | 9 months | 2026 Austerity Budget | Confidence Vote Defeated (Art. 49.1) |
| Sébastien Lecornu | Sept 2025 | Oct 2025 | 27 days | 2026 Budget Negotiation | Pre-emptive Resignation |
IV. Sébastien Lecornu: Profile, Appointment, and Failed Mandate
A. A Loyal Ally: Political Ascent and Background
Sébastien Lecornu, born in 1986, is representative of a younger generation of politicians closely aligned with President Macron. His political ascent was notably rapid, marking him as a high-potential operator within the ruling establishment. Lecornu became the youngest parliamentary assistant in 2005 and, by age 22, was the youngest advisor to a cabinet official in the government of Prime Minister François Fillon. His career prior to the premiership included significant responsibilities, serving as Minister of the Overseas (managing sensitive geopolitical issues such as the 2024 New Caledonia unrest ) and, most recently, as Minister of the Armed Forces, a role of critical importance amidst European security concerns.
Lecornu was appointed on September 9, 2025, succeeding François Bayrou, and becoming Macron’s fifth Prime Minister in two years. His mandate was clear: stabilize the government and somehow secure parliamentary support for the vital 2026 budget, a necessity compounded by the recent fiscal failures.
B. The Strategy of Ideological Compromise
Recognizing that the mechanical invocation of constitutional powers guaranteed failure, Lecornu attempted to pivot toward political compromise. He explicitly ruled out using Article 49.3 to ram the budget through, arguing that in a "functioning parliament," it is inappropriate to "just force things through," thereby placing the responsibility for compromise directly on the lawmakers.
Lecornu's key strategic move was the "wealth tax gambit," an attempt to court the left-wing NFP, particularly the Socialist Party (PS), whose abstention or support could have provided a slim lifeline. The proposal aimed to address concerns over "fiscal justice" by creating a new tax on financial wealth, specifically excluding business owners' assets. Specific measures included a proposed tax on incomes exceeding €250,000 to €380,000 per year, and measures to crack down on holding companies. However, the gambit failed to bridge the ideological gap. The Socialist Party demanded a more substantial 2% wealth tax on France's richest 0.01% (the "Zucman tax") as the price for their support. While a prominent Socialist figure, Raphaël Glucksmann, indicated a willingness not to oppose the government if the policies truly moved toward fiscal justice, Socialist leader Olivier Faure ultimately dismissed Lecornu’s proposed changes as "insufficient".
C. The Fatal Cabinet Decision
Despite weeks of negotiations predicated on the need for political consensus, the failure of the Lecornu government was precipitated by the cabinet he ultimately unveiled late on Sunday, October 5, 2025. The cabinet was criticized for being largely identical to the one censured under Bayrou, failing to signal any genuine policy shift or break from Macron’s entrenched agenda.
Key appointments highlighted the President’s unwavering commitment to continuity: Gérald Darmanin remained Justice Minister, and Rachida Dati remained Culture Minister. The most controversial decision was the return of Bruno Le Maire, the Economy Minister for seven years and the face of Macron’s pro-business and austerity policies, now reassigned as Defense Minister. Roland Lescure was named Economy Minister, emphasizing the President's determination to keep critical economic portfolios under tight executive control despite the deepening debt crisis.
The composition of the cabinet exposed a fundamental contradiction in the executive strategy. While Prime Minister Lecornu was sent to seek ideological compromise (the wealth tax) necessary for parliamentary stability, the President insisted on maintaining a cabinet composed of staunch pro-business hardliners. Opposition leaders, especially on the left, immediately viewed this cabinet lineup as definitive proof of Macron's unwillingness to deviate from his economic course. This decision undercut Lecornu's attempts at consensus building, proving to the opposition that any policy flexibility was superficial. The priority given by the executive to policy continuity and control over parliamentary stability ultimately sealed the government’s fate.
V. The Record Resignation: Analysis of the 27-Day Failure
A. The Immediate Trigger: Loss of Conservative Support
The cabinet announcement provoked immediate backlash, particularly from the center-right Les Républicains (LR), a key group whose 50 seats were mathematically crucial for any hope of survival. The LR swiftly withdrew their support, specifically objecting to Lecornu’s choices for the Defense portfolio. This withdrawal instantly rendered the government incapable of surviving a confidence vote.
With the necessary conservative support lost, opposition blocs (the NFP and RN) immediately threatened a coordinated motion of no confidence. Opposition leaders intensified their demands, calling for President Macron to either resign or call new snap elections.
B. The Shortest Tenure in History
Faced with imminent, certain defeat and the likelihood of becoming the second consecutive government to be toppled by a formal vote of censure, Sébastien Lecornu submitted his resignation on Monday, October 6, 2025. His government lasted 14 hours following the cabinet announcement and his total tenure stood at only 27 days, making him the shortest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the Fifth Republic. In his defense, the close ally stated that the conditions for remaining in office were no longer met, publicly blaming the failure on the "egos" of opposition politicians and suggesting consensus could have been achieved with "a little more work" from coalition partners.
C. The Aftermath and Presidential Indecision
Following the abrupt departure, President Macron accepted the resignation. The ensuing hours were marked by public silence from the President, fueling speculation and deepening the sense of crisis. Instead of naming a successor immediately or calling new legislative elections, Macron opted for a paradoxical measure: he asked the resigned Prime Minister, Lecornu, to lead "final negotiations" over the next two days to determine if a stable government could still be formed.
This highly unusual move—tasking a failed PM with negotiating the very consensus he had just proven impossible to achieve—underscores the executive branch's deepening difficulty in finding a viable political path. However, the pre-emptive resignation was likely a tactical move to protect the executive office from further constitutional damage. By resigning before the opposition could table and pass a no-confidence motion, Lecornu prevented the legislative branch from achieving a second successful formal censure vote in less than a year. Avoiding this second constitutional humiliation was essential to prevent the normalization of the parliamentary toppling of the executive, thereby preserving a minimal degree of institutional pride for the President’s office and the remaining term of the Fifth Republic.
VI. Macroeconomic and Societal Stressors
The political instability has not occurred in a vacuum; rather, it has been driven and amplified by severe fiscal deficits and widespread public opposition to the required austerity, creating a direct feedback loop between political deadlock and national risk.
A. Fiscal Deterioration and Credit Rating Downgrades
France faces one of the most acute debt challenges in the Eurozone. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the country’s public debt stood at an excessive 113.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a figure that has grown over the last two decades. This trajectory, combined with a 2024 deficit of 6.1% of GDP, necessitates immediate and unpopular spending cuts and tax increases to meet European fiscal obligations and stabilize the country’s finances.
The political fragmentation directly eroded international confidence in France’s capacity for fiscal consolidation. In September 2025, in the wake of continued political turmoil, Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating to 'A+' from 'AA-', citing the high and rising debt ratio alongside the "increased fragmentation and polarization of domestic politics". This follows similar warnings from Moody's earlier in the year, which indicated that the political deadlock was likely to "impede meaningful fiscal consolidation". The economic consequence of Lecornu’s resignation was immediate and tangible: the news drove key stock indices and the Euro sharply lower, confirming market apprehension regarding the nation's financial stability.
Fiscal and Political Instability Metrics (2024–2025)
| Metric | Value/Rating (Late 2025) | Significance | Source |
| Public Debt to GDP Ratio | 113.9% | Indicates rising fiscal strain and limited room for maneuverability. | |
| Fitch Credit Rating | A+ (Downgraded) | Reflects institutional risk impeding fiscal consolidation. | |
| Number of PMs since 2024 Dissolution | 4 (Barnier, Bayrou, Lecornu, Current Caretaker) | Velocity of government failure; highlights political chaos. | |
| Public Perception of Crisis | >Two-thirds in "crisis or decay" | Deep societal pessimism and distrust in governance structure. |
B. Public Discontent and the "Bloquons tout" Movement
The government’s attempts to pass austerity budgets coincided with escalating public opposition and organized labor action. The defeat of Bayrou’s budget and the brief tenure of Lecornu occurred amidst waves of nationwide strikes and protests.
A significant manifestation of this discontent was the "Bloquons tout" (Block Everything) movement, which began in September 2025 in opposition to the Bayrou government's proposed 2026 budget and austerity measures. This movement, supported by grassroots activists and supporters of La France Insoumise, focused on paralyzing infrastructure, blocking ring roads in Paris, Bordeaux, and other northern cities. These actions often aligned with organized trade union strikes. On September 18, 2025, official figures reported more than 500,000 demonstrators nationwide, with unions claiming over one million. A subsequent day of widespread strikes on October 2, 2025, just days before Lecornu's resignation, drew approximately 195,000 people, underscoring the continuous, organized societal resistance against the executive’s economic agenda and signaling deep societal fissures regarding fiscal policy.
VII. Erosion of Presidential Authority and Constitutional Jeopardy
A. Internal Fissures within the Center Bloc
The severity of the crisis is evident in the public disavowals of President Macron by his own political allies and former prime ministers, indicating that his authority is being critically "sapped by his inability to deliver stable governance".
Édouard Philippe, Macron’s first prime minister (2017–2020) and a leader of a crucial allied party, publicly intensified pressure on the President following Lecornu’s resignation. Philippe urged Macron to announce an early presidential election once the 2026 budget was finally adopted. Philippe forcefully argued that prolonging the current instability for another 18 months, until the end of Macron’s term in 2027, would be "far too long and it is damaging France". Furthermore, Gabriel Attal, whose brief tenure as PM ended with Macron’s dissolution decision in 2024 (the root of the current crisis), publicly distanced himself, stating that "Like many French people, I no longer understand the president's decisions". These public statements by influential figures, who themselves are potential successors, represent a profound loss of institutional support and legitimacy for the sitting President.
B. The Threat of Institutional Paralysis
The political phenomenon observed in 2024–2025 goes beyond typical parliamentary friction; it reflects a systemic vulnerability in the Fifth Republic’s design when confronted with deep electoral fragmentation. Political commentators have increasingly drawn parallels between the current governmental instability and the crippling paralysis characteristic of the post-war Fourth Republic.
The executive branch is functionally paralyzed because the opposition blocs—the NFP and the RN—have successfully created a self-sustaining cycle of governmental failure through the strategic weaponization of constitutional mechanisms. The core duty of the government is fiscal consolidation, requiring unpopular tax increases and spending cuts. Because neither the left nor the far-right is willing to compromise on these critical measures, they have found common cause in defeating any attempt by the executive to govern. This ensures that any attempt by a Macron-appointed Prime Minister to pass the budget, whether through negotiation (Lecornu) or constitutional force (Barnier), results in either immediate parliamentary defeat or a politically mandated resignation. This structural flaw, compounded by the decay of presidential authority, suggests that the crisis requires more than just a change of Prime Minister.
C. Future Scenarios and Geopolitical Risk
Following Lecornu’s resignation, the array of non-disruptive options available to President Macron is critically narrow. The President may attempt to appoint a new, non-party-political technocrat to force through the budget, but this carries the risk of immediate, unified censure by an opposition ready to strike down any perceived undemocratic maneuver. Alternatively, the President could continue the cycle of negotiations, perhaps even trying to form a revised government under Lecornu as he proposed.
The most severe option is dissolving the National Assembly yet again and calling a second snap legislative election. Given the current polling and social unrest, this is a high-risk gamble that could result in a clear victory for one of the opposition blocs (either the NFP or the RN), forcing President Macron into a full cohabitation scenario. Regardless of the choice, sustained political uncertainty is guaranteed, carrying significant geopolitical consequences. A weakened French executive, preoccupied with existential domestic political survival and fiscal stabilization, implies reduced or halted French engagement on the international stage, affecting the country’s pivotal role within the European Union and NATO.
VIII. Conclusion and Prognosis
Sébastien Lecornu’s record-short, 27-day tenure epitomizes the profound institutional failure gripping France. His resignation was the direct consequence of a fundamental misalignment: the executive branch’s imperative for policy continuity clashed fatally with the parliamentary necessity of achieving radical compromise to secure a budget. Lecornu’s pragmatic attempt to pivot leftward with a wealth tax proposal was doomed by the President’s simultaneous decision to retain powerful pro-business hardliners in the core cabinet positions, confirming to the opposition that the executive was unwilling to fundamentally alter its direction.
The political crisis has metastasized into a systemic financial and social vulnerability. The institutional deadlock prevents the necessary fiscal consolidation required to tackle France’s high debt and deficit, leading to international financial caution and credit rating downgrades. Simultaneously, the inability of the government to manage the fiscal crisis has fueled widespread public mobilization and strike action, exacerbating social divisions.
The crisis has now escalated beyond mere governmental instability to a direct challenge against the legitimacy and remaining duration of the presidential mandate, as influential former allies call for Macron’s resignation. The current configuration of the National Assembly has successfully disabled the constitutional tools intended to guarantee executive stability, establishing a new norm of parliamentary veto power over the executive. This unprecedented fragility risks diminishing France’s domestic capacity for reform and its international standing, solidifying an era of systemic institutional uncertainty that deviates sharply from the principles of strong executive governance upon which the Fifth Republic was founded. The path forward remains fraught with high risk, promising sustained political and financial uncertainty until either a constitutional reset or a fundamental shift in the French electoral landscape is achieved.
